GDP & The Economy... Confused?

I am no Economics student but I like numbers, can manage numbers and can relate to numbers and what it tells you.

GDP is a subject that always confused me - I had thought it was in tens, hundreds or millions of thousands until I recently looked at the Scottish Governments GDP figures in April 2016. After hearing all the media stories about "not as good as the UK" and the "Oh woe.. Scotland & Scottish Govt stories" I thought I'd look into the detail myself.

BBC News: "Scotland's economy grew by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2015 but trailed the UK's performance as a whole, according to official figures."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-35976869

Press & Journal: "Growth in GDP helps Scotland’s economy avoid recession"

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/pipe/881577/growth-in-gdp-helps-scotlands-economy-avoid-recession/?

The Herald: "Economic growth much weaker in Scotland than in UK as a whole"

http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/14407738.Economic_growth_much_weaker_in_Scotland_than_in_UK_as_a_whole/?

Or even the anti-SNP rhetoric of Douglas Frasers article on BBC (yeah they're trying to create the news rather than report on it): "The taxing question of Scotland's growth"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-35980512

I think you'll agree all talking Scotland down and ensuring that those reading them will think that the Scottish Government is not doing its job properly. The same is heard across BBC Radio Scotland and BBC Scotland News stories, even STV are getting in on the rhetoric. But is that the case?

Luckily the data openly available. It's no secret that you can download this data yourself by visiting http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/PubGDP/GDP2015Q4 and seeing what this is all about.

If you download the "results tables" the first page you see is the Quarterly results and yes the data shows some numbers. Confusing to say the least, but look at it this way. The Scottish Government was formed in 2011 once plans were in place, they decided to set 2012 as a benchmark year. This was then given a score of 100, everything before and after was then benchmarked against this 2012 figure. As an example during the Iraq War in 2003, GDP was at a relative index score of 93 gradually increasing from 1998 & peaking in 2007 at the highest EVER of 102 before being impacted by the financial crisis of 2008 when it dropped.

In the last term of office, the Scottish Government has made significant progress in increasing the GDP of the country, starting with 99.7 and steadily increasing this to 106.3 in 2015. Keep in mind that 106.3 is the highest GDP we have ever achieved as a nation. Pretty impressive that they've managed a 6.3% increase in GDP since 2012 considering all the doom and gloom that the Media prefer to portray & unless another financial crisis is experienced soon (some say it's due), then the momentum is behind the Scottish Government to continue this growth. (Rhetorical question, how the hell could they do this when the oil price is so low? :) ).

The main noticeable changes though are in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing which have dropped significantly since 2006, nearly 22%, this isn't directly "SNPbad" of course. In the UK as a whole, less Agriculture & Fishing are being done as we are pushed into a more reliant state. But keep in mind that during this parliament, Scotland has only reduced Agriculture Forestry & Fishing by 1.123% it looks like there has been a more concerted effort to stave off this execution, some would say that this was a deliberate ploy by the Scottish Government to fight for Scotland's corner, I’ll leave that one with you. (Question - I don't profess to know the answer - What happened between 2004 & 2012 that saw Fishing, Forestry & Agriculture reduce so much in Scotland? If I were the press, I'd be asking this question & is it based on EU, UK or Scottish decisions?)

Anyway, when viewed in a minuscule bubble, like our press & media appear to be doing (& no doubt part time pet food shop owners), how does Scotland's GDP compare? Well, exactly like they say when comparing apples with pears, but just delve into the Macro-vision of the figures and you can see the Scottish Government are doing "no-bad"!

Please share :)

T

Dear Loki, I'm with Nicola!

Awww Loki, my life certainly wasn't as grim as yours appears to be however we all have our demons.
My father was an alcoholic for all of my life and only a couple of brief sober periods lightened the darkness that always followed us. I remember waiting at the town cross waiting for my father after (his) work with my mum to make sure money was available for food before he pissed it down a toilet. That was the generation he lived in and I accept that. I can only thank my mum for not hiding this from us as it turned me away from alcohol and although I enjoyed the usual teenage bucket, it was always on my mind that I wouldn't put anyone through that.

Not being able to bring friends home when growing up does have it's benefits, however it does scar you when you want to let 'sleeping dogs lie'. Only very close friends - who knew what he was like, were allowed near the house & only then, never inside lest a scene was to be witnessed.
Luckily, I spotted an escape. When 13 I picked up a guitar from someone and for the next 5 years I practiced and practiced when under pressure and it gave me an escape between studies to head to another world - my favourite memories were spent with closed cup headphones on away from any rammy going on elsewhere, with my guitar in hand and practicing the latest favourite track.

Education was also another way out, I learnt early on that most successful people (people with good jobs), stuck in at school and got themselves an education. My student days were always good, I was encouraged by other's reactions that I could do this well and the pressure I put on myself meant I didn't cope well with exam situations. No help was available from family or friends (who didn't give a shit) and the school I went to was pretty crap with no encouragement from teachers or society to do well but I knew, I just knew that sticking in would do well.

When 16 my thoughts had slightly changed. I didn't like the pressure I experienced at exam time and only managed 5 O'grades (grade 3), but although I knew I was better than that, I didn't think I was cutout for the academic life so moved into something else I also enjoyed - woodwork (craft & design). A YTS later and I wanted to be a joiner/carpenter. Nope, the doors didn't open! I then took some low paid jobs (including working casually in Ravenscraig for a summer) until I was given the chance to work with someone semi-self-employed on building sites hanging doors and doing 2nd fixing jobs for a while. It was during this time on a snowy January (-5degrees) hanging fire doors that i had my epiphany! I decided there and then that I should be doing something better than that!

I went back to school that next day. I had a hunger that I hadn't experienced before and stuck in to get highers and moved on to study computing - I enjoyed this but knew I could do more. Then I studied some more & filled up my timetable with a crash course in Physics so I could get funding for full time education. Physics just clicked and it was then that I knew I had found the subject that really gave me interest and passion. Who would have thought it.

I now have a degree in Physics and have a decent job still below the 40% tax bracket but enjoy life with my wife and 4 kids, who are being encouraged to think about what they love & link this to their studies with a mind on their careers. 4 kids is a challenge, but I strive to do everything to make their life better than what I experienced. They're not spoiled but we balance humility with ambition & hard work to achieve what we deserve.

Early 2000 I started to think about politics and although I had always been thinking about society and politics, I only became vocal once I had formulated my own thoughts. I fleeted with Liberals when younger, but my family and location meant that Labour was my party. I toyed with further left politics but although I had a left-leaning mentality, I was also aware that those that follow ultra-left can be a bit unhinged and consistency was always a rainbow effect with left parties (some were totally left others were more practical). So that's where I find myself, I agree that Left-Politics is a dream but the practicalities show that only a left-type journey will deliver on this, juddering and stalling to left politics helps no-one and doesn't bring people with us, we can only do this gradually by introducing policies that more and more people agree with & we can hold their hand while we form a better society. That's why I'm with Nicola, the SNP will provide a practical move to the left giving society confidence that they know what they are doing without rocking the boat but equally ensuring that we take people with us.

I'd like to think my past was unique but I fear not, I would like to think that young people have a clearer path and that more support would be available from what I had & I'd like to think that the opportunities I had in education are available to everyone who wanted to better themselves and achieve their goals. I'd also like to think that Scotland as a country can stand on it's own and make the choices that better's these opportunities. But finally I'd like to think that SNP are the only party that hear my voice and give me a confidence that they can deliver close to what my heart wants.

You are allowed a voice, that's the beauty of Scotland, we get that choice - however you influence a lot more than I could due to a lucky break (we all know how the music industry works), but my heart resonates with a lot of Scotland, the only difference I have from you is that I am being practical on how we deliver this. My heart is to the left but the practicality of this can only be delivered by taking everyone with us and I believe the SNP are the only credible way to get closer to that goal.

Best of luck in your career, odds are that you'll be living off your royalties for a long time, I'll continue working my hands to the bone in true working class style and will continue to watch people's faces recollect and brighten up when I play my guitar at the weekends. Just like many of my peers! Saor Alba!